The search engine gurus at SEOmoz have posted a rather interesting blog article, courtesy of their CEO and co-founder randfish, that poses 5 scenarios that could usurp Google’s dominance of the search engine market share. While the perceived threats to Google vary in plausibility and likelihood, they still highlight some interesting trends that are currently emerging in the ever expanding world of internet marketing.

We thought we would evaluate these so called threats, with consideration of recent developments in the search world, and throw in our own two cents as well. To summarize, Google’s empire will crumble if:

1) An existing competitor comes back to dominate the market share.

If other popular search engines like AltaVista, Yahoo! or MSN, which had dominated the search engine market before Google’s breakthrough, somehow managed to make a comeback by either offering better search results or an improved interface.

Likelihood rating: 4/10.

As of December 2007, the market share of search engines looked like this:

Google 46.47%
Yahoo! 17.16%
Baidu 13.76%
Microsoft 12.87%
NHN 4.71%
eBay 23.9%
Time Warner (includes AOL) 1.6%
Ask.com and related 1.1%
Yandex 0.9%
Alibaba.com 0.8%

Total 61,221 million searches, 100.0% (source: comScore press release).

Given the massive edge Google has right now, the existing competitors, who haven’t dominated since 1999, would have to come up with a revolutionary interface if they wanted to win over internet experts and the media. The article does make an important note that fluctuations in the global economy may alter the playing field, giving China’s Baidu an edge. But given Google’s current entrenchment and international support, such a seismic shift seems far off.

2) A new start up search engine company follows Google’s narrative and takes over.

Just like Google did in the late ‘90s, a new startup search engine could listen to the demands of web users and offer bold new technological or interfacial solutions to problems currently plaguing search results – winning over the media in the process.

Likelihood Rating: 5/10.

Given Google’s deep pockets and their historic acquisition of YouTube, any new competitor offering a serious challenge will face the threat of buyouts. One solution to this, as the article states, is that a major, non-search engine company like IBM could acquire the startup and take over. Microsoft has recently taken such an approach, making an unsolicited bid to buy shares of Yahoo!’s stock. The offer was turned down by Yahoo’s board of directors (source: Yahoo! press release)

When a major player like Microsoft is struggling to make strides in the race against Google, the likelihood of a major company taking hold of a promising new startup is slim. The massive precedent made by companies like Microsoft may deter future maneuvers of this kind.

3) Vertical Search gains dominance.

Vertical search engines specialize on specific businesses, interests and industries and avoid the broad approach offered by major engines like Google. As web users become better searchers and are able to articulate their needs online, use of these vertical search engines may steadily increase, eventually evaporating the need for broad searches, which often frustrate people with their sheer volume of results.

Likelihood Rating: 6/10.

Vertical Searches have been rising in popularity in recent years as travel sites, shopping networks and employment centers like Workopolis use algorithms that crawl through specialized databases, narrowing the field of results. Anticipating the rise of these services, Google has developed restricted search parameters so you can search through local results. Also, Google’s Directory allows you to narrow your search results by industry. In the event of major vertical search development, Google can extend and aggressively market their directory search features.

4) Traditional text-based search is replaced by other methods.

If another search engine model comes forward to replace Google’s text based interface, such as voice recognition or image scanning systems, it could usher in a new era of internet use and leave Google in the dust.

Likelihood Rating: 7/10.

Technology is always changing, so the possibility that other search interfaces will develop is high, as voice recognition systems and the integration of video and webcams into search engines become more wide spread and accessible. Google isn’t one to be left out of the loop of course, as they have begun implementing their Google 411 service, which allows users to access local business information through their phones. As Google expands on these services, you can expect more web integration, keeping them competitive among competing interfaces.

5) Google gets spammed to death.

Spamming technology could advance to the extent that manipulators wreck havoc on Google’s relevancy.

Likelihood Rating: 3/10.

Google has been battling spammers since their inception and they have been consistently developing technology geared towards spam combat. Again, Google’s vast financial and human resources give them the upper hand when it comes to rooting out the spammers. Also, because spamming is so reviled by the public, you can expect legislature in cities and countries around the world will be clamping down on the worst culprits, especially if things get really out of hand.

So in short, SEOmoz’s blog article lists compelling threats to Google’s standing but none that will dramatically destabilize their position in the near future. As new developments take shape in the world of search engine optimization, you can expect Apollo’s Blog to be tracking them along the way. So for the latest news, discussion and strategies surrounding SEO, blogging and internet marketing, stay tuned to this space!